Publication: El desarrollo inmobiliario en la Región de Murcia y sus efectos en la consolidación del Estado del Bienestar, 1950-2023
Authors
Pérez García, Amelia
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Escuela Internacional de Doctorado
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García-Ayllón Veintimilla, Salvador ; López-Morell, Miguel Ángel
Publisher
Universidad de Murcia
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DOI
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info:eu-repo/semantics/doctoralThesis
Description
Programa de Doctorado Economía
Abstract
Esta tesis doctoral analiza la transformación de la Región de Murcia a través del sector de la construcción. A lo largo de más de un siglo, el desarrollo inmobiliario no solo ha definido el paisaje físico de la región, sino que se ha convertido en el principal motor de su estructura económica y social. El objetivo central de esta investigación es determinar si este crecimiento urbanístico ha permitido consolidar el Estado del Bienestar o si, por el contrario, ha generado desequilibrios que comprometen el futuro de la población murciana.
La investigación adopta una metodología híbrida que combina un recorrido histórico y normativo, desde las primeras leyes de vivienda del siglo XX hasta la normativa actual, con un análisis estadístico empleando la herramienta RStudio. Se examinan décadas de datos, contrastando variables sectoriales como el número de viviendas iniciadas y el Valor Añadido Bruto (VAB) frente a indicadores de bienestar: la tasa de paro, la desigualdad medida por el índice de Gini, la esperanza de vida, los niveles de escolarización y el impacto ambiental a través de las emisiones de CO2.
Los resultados revelan una realidad compleja y, en ocasiones, paradójica. Si bien existe una correlación directa entre la construcción y el crecimiento demográfico y económico, el análisis demuestra que el "boom" inmobiliario no ha sido un remedio infalible contra los problemas sociales. Se observa una correlación negativa entre la actividad constructora y los años de escolarización, sugiriendo un "efecto expulsión" donde el empleo rápido y poco cualificado incentivó el abandono escolar temprano. Asimismo, la investigación arroja luz sobre las externalidades negativas en la salud pública y la sostenibilidad, vinculando los periodos de mayor expansión constructora con un aumento del estrés urbano y el deterioro medioambiental.
En conclusión, esta tesis sostiene que el modelo tradicional de crecimiento basado en el ladrillo ha alcanzado sus límites. Los hallazgos subrayan la necesidad de una transición hacia un modelo económico más diversificado, donde el desarrollo urbano se convierta en una herramienta real al servicio del capital humano, la salud y la sostenibilidad en la Región de Murcia.
This doctoral thesis analyzes the transformation of the Region of Murcia through the construction sector. Throughout more than a century, real estate development has not only defined the region's physical landscape but has also become the main engine of its economic and social structure. The central objective of this research is to determine whether this urban growth has allowed for the consolidation of the Welfare State or if, on the contrary, it has generated imbalances that compromise the future of the Murcian population. The research adopts a hybrid methodology that combines a historical and normative overview-from the first housing laws of the 20th century to current regulations-with a statistical analysis using the RStudio tool. Decades of data are examined, contrasting sectoral variables such as the number of housing starts and Gross Value Added (GVA) against welfare indicators: the unemployment rate, inequality measured by the Gini index, life expectancy, schooling levels, and environmental impact through CO2 emissions. The results reveal a complex and, at times, paradoxical reality. Although there is a direct correlation between construction and demographic and economic growth, the analysis demonstrates that the real estate "boom" has not been an infallible remedy for social problems. A negative correlation is observed between construction activity and years of schooling, suggesting an "expulsion effect" where rapid and low-skilled employment incentivized early school leaving. Likewise, the research sheds light on negative externalities in public health and sustainability, linking periods of greatest construction expansion with an increase in urban stress and environmental degradation. In conclusion, this thesis argues that the traditional growth model based on "bricks and mortar" has reached its limits. The findings highlight the need for a transition toward a more diversified economic model, where urban development becomes a real tool at the service of human capital, health, and sustainability in the Region of Murcia.
This doctoral thesis analyzes the transformation of the Region of Murcia through the construction sector. Throughout more than a century, real estate development has not only defined the region's physical landscape but has also become the main engine of its economic and social structure. The central objective of this research is to determine whether this urban growth has allowed for the consolidation of the Welfare State or if, on the contrary, it has generated imbalances that compromise the future of the Murcian population. The research adopts a hybrid methodology that combines a historical and normative overview-from the first housing laws of the 20th century to current regulations-with a statistical analysis using the RStudio tool. Decades of data are examined, contrasting sectoral variables such as the number of housing starts and Gross Value Added (GVA) against welfare indicators: the unemployment rate, inequality measured by the Gini index, life expectancy, schooling levels, and environmental impact through CO2 emissions. The results reveal a complex and, at times, paradoxical reality. Although there is a direct correlation between construction and demographic and economic growth, the analysis demonstrates that the real estate "boom" has not been an infallible remedy for social problems. A negative correlation is observed between construction activity and years of schooling, suggesting an "expulsion effect" where rapid and low-skilled employment incentivized early school leaving. Likewise, the research sheds light on negative externalities in public health and sustainability, linking periods of greatest construction expansion with an increase in urban stress and environmental degradation. In conclusion, this thesis argues that the traditional growth model based on "bricks and mortar" has reached its limits. The findings highlight the need for a transition toward a more diversified economic model, where urban development becomes a real tool at the service of human capital, health, and sustainability in the Region of Murcia.
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