Publication: La Insolvencia Empresarial: Un Análisis Empírico para la Pequeña y Mediana Empresa
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Date
2003
Authors
Correa Rodríguez, Alicia ; Acosta Molina, Miguel ; González Pérez, Ana Lorenza
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Abstract
En el marco de las investigaciones que tratan de construir una teoría sobre el fracaso empresarial, el objetivo de este estudio es contribuir al conocimiento de los indicador es financieros que más eficientemente anticipan la insolvencia en la pequeña y mediana empresa, uno y dos años antes de que ésta se produzca. Las principales aportaciones vienen referidas al plano metodológico destacando: 1) la adopción como criterio de insolvencia de la situación de quiebra técnica, sin duda, mucho más amplio que el habitual de quiebra legal y, 2) la aplicación de técnicas como la regresión logística y el algoritmo de inducción de reglas y árboles de decisión See5 que se caracterizan, frente a otras herramientas estadísticas habitualmente utilizadas en este tipo de trabajos, por una mayor flexibilidad y adecuación a las características de la información contable, no estando sujetas a las restricciones de normalidad de las distribuciones de los ratios. Los resultados obtenidos indican que el endeudamiento, seguido de la rentabilidad económica y algunos indicadores de solvencia, son las variables con mayor capacidad explicativa para el diagnóstico de la insolvencia empresarial.
In the field of studies on the theory of firm failre, the aim of this paper is to contribute to the general knowledge of financial indicator which more efficiently anticipate bankruptcy in the small and medium size firms, one and two years before it takes place. This paper deals mainly with methodological factors: 1) Adpotion of technical bankruptcy as a criterion of firm failure, much broader than the usual case of legal bankruptcy and, 2) Application of techniques such as the logistic regression and the algorithm of induction of rules and decision trees, See5, characterized by a greater flexibility and adjustment to the accounting information characteristics, not being subject to normality restrictions of ratio distributions. The results obtained indicate that indebtedness, followed by economic yield and some indicators of solvency, are the variables with greater explanatory capacity for bankruptcy diagnosis
In the field of studies on the theory of firm failre, the aim of this paper is to contribute to the general knowledge of financial indicator which more efficiently anticipate bankruptcy in the small and medium size firms, one and two years before it takes place. This paper deals mainly with methodological factors: 1) Adpotion of technical bankruptcy as a criterion of firm failure, much broader than the usual case of legal bankruptcy and, 2) Application of techniques such as the logistic regression and the algorithm of induction of rules and decision trees, See5, characterized by a greater flexibility and adjustment to the accounting information characteristics, not being subject to normality restrictions of ratio distributions. The results obtained indicate that indebtedness, followed by economic yield and some indicators of solvency, are the variables with greater explanatory capacity for bankruptcy diagnosis
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