Publication: Polarización afectiva en España. Sesgos y disposiciones cognitivas diferenciales: percepciones erróneas, distanciamiento relacional y partidismo negativo
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Date
2025-10-28
Authors
Rojo Martínez, José Miguel
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Escuelas::Escuela Internacional de Doctorado
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Crespo Martínez, Ismael
Publisher
Universidad de Murca
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DOI
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info:eu-repo/semantics/doctoralThesis
Description
Abstract
Esta tesis analiza las causas (cognitivas) y consecuencias (sociales y políticas) menos exploradas de la polarización afectiva en España, a partir de los sesgos y disposiciones diferenciales que configuran sus orígenes y manifestaciones, con especial atención al papel de las percepciones erróneas sobre los exogrupos y el sistema de partidos, al distanciamiento social entre individuos con distintas identidades partidistas y a la extensión e influencia del partidismo negativo. Utilizando datos de las Encuestas Nacionales de Polarización Política del Centro de Estudios Murciano de Opinión Pública (CEMOP), se demuestra que, cuanto mayor es la percepción distorsionada sobre la posición ideológica de un partido, más rechazo se genera hacia ese partido. Al mismo tiempo, se evidencia que la percepción de polarización sistémica alimenta la polarización afectiva individual y que la brecha entre polarización real y percibida (lo que se denomina falsa polarización) influye significativamente en los niveles individuales de dispersión afectiva. La acentuación de las diferencias intergrupales, a partir de inferencias imprecisas y estereotipos, ofrece una mirada novedosa a las hipótesis que han señalado a la divergencia ideológica como origen de la hostilidad interpartidista. Buena parte del contraste percibido es irreal y está distorsionado por sesgos cognitivos de origen grupal que tratan de reforzar el contraste entre categorías para mantener la distinción positiva del endogrupo y simplificar la comprensión del entorno.
Seguidamente, la tesis presenta datos novedosos sobre los efectos no políticos de la polarización afectiva en España, en particular, cómo puede alimentar la homogamia y contribuir a la segregación social. En conexión con el marco teórico desarrollado, se subrayan los procesos interpersonales como núcleo distintivo de este tipo de polarización política. A partir de una pregunta sobre el agrado o desagrado que generarían potenciales relaciones de pareja según la identidad partidista del partner, se contrapone la influencia del sesgo de favoritismo endogrupal frente al de rechazo exogrupal como sustratos separados de los procesos de discriminación y se observan dinámicas de bloque también en la vida cotidiana. A través de este estudio se constata, adicionalmente, cómo las expresiones de distanciamiento social son especialmente prevalentes cuando se trata de establecer relaciones con los votantes de la derecha radical (Vox), que además activan una mayor expresión de desagrado entre las mujeres. La presumible atribución de rasgos de personalidad a partir de la identidad partidista de los sujetos y el prejuicio de incompatibilidad demuestran la condición expresiva del partidismo en España, la extensión del conflicto político a cada vez más esferas y refutan el tradicional cuestionamiento de la relevancia de este tipo de vínculo identitario. Sin embargo, dado que el origen de la discriminación parece ser más el amor al grupo propio y la desigual distribución de afectos que el rechazo exogrupal aislado, se activa una reflexión de calado psicológico sobre las motivaciones que tienen los sujetos para generar entornos homofílicos.
Por último, se aborda el concepto de partidismo negativo, una forma de identificación que nace del intenso rechazo a un grupo, y se procede a estimar hasta qué punto puede considerarse como una razón de voto en España. Al demostrar que el partidismo negativo genera rendimiento electoral, como sucedió con el rechazo a Vox y el voto por el PSOE en las elecciones españolas de julio de 2023, existe un incentivo para que las élites adopten estrategias de comunicación orientadas a incrementar el rechazo al exogrupo para que ese sentimiento se convierta en un motor de fidelización o movilización. Por el camino, esas campañas negativas que tratan de maximizar las distancias entre grupos y demonizan al rival impactan en las propias actitudes de los ciudadanos y contribuyen al clima de polarización social.
This thesis analyzes the less explored (cognitive) causes and (social and political) consequences of affective polarization in Spain, focusing on the differential biases and dispositions that shape its origins and expressions. Special attention is given to the role of misperceptions about outgroups and the party system, to the social distancing between individuals with different partisan identities, and to the scope and influence of negative partisanship. Using data from the National Surveys on Political Polarization conducted by the Center of Public Opinion Studies of the University of Murcia (CEMOP), the analysis demonstrates that the more distorted an individual’s perception of a party’s ideological position, the greater the rejection of that party. It also shows that perceived system-level polarization fuels individual-level affective polarization, and that the gap between actual and perceived polarization (what is referred to as false polarization) significantly impacts individuals’ affective divergence. The intensification of intergroup differences, based on inaccurate inferences and stereotypes, offers a new perspective on theories that attribute interparty hostility to ideological divergence. Much of the perceived contrast is misprojected and inflated by group-based cognitive biases that seek to reinforce categorical distinctions in order to maintain a positive ingroup image and simplify social interpretation. The thesis then presents novel data on the non-political effects of affective polarization in Spain, particularly how it can foster homogamy and contribute to social segregation. In line with the theoretical framework developed earlier, the analysis emphasizes interpersonal processes as the distinctive core of this specific type of political polarization. Drawing on a question about the (dis)comfort respondents would feel in forming a romantic relationship with someone depending on that person’s partisan identity, the study contrasts the influence of ingroup favoritism and outgroup rejection as separate foundations of discriminatory behavior. It also reveals how partisan bloc dynamics extend into everyday life. The findings show that expressions of social distancing are especially pronounced when it comes to forming relationships with radical right voters (Vox), who elicit stronger negative reactions—particularly among women. The likely attribution of personality traits based on a person’s partisan identity, along with the prejudice of perceived incompatibility, highlights the expressive function of partisan identity in Spain. It illustrates the expansion of political conflict into increasingly personal domains and challenges traditional assumptions about the declining relevance of partisanship. However, since the origin of discriminatory behavior appears to lie more in ingroup attachment and the unequal distribution of affect than in isolated outgroup rejection, the findings prompt a psychological reflection on the motives behind individuals’ tendency to seek homophilic environments. Finally, the thesis addresses the concept of negative partisanship, an identification based on strong rejection of a particular political group, and assesses the extent to which it can be considered an underexplored voting rationale in the Spanish context. By showing that negative partisanship can translate into electoral returns, as evidenced by the rejection of Vox and the resulting vote for the PSOE in Spain’s July 2023 general elections, this thesis highlights the strategic incentive for political elites to adopt communication strategies aimed at increasing outgroup rejection, so that such sentiments become mechanisms for voter loyalty or mobilization. Along the way, these negative campaigns, designed to maximize intergroup distance and demonize op-ponents, also affect citizens’ attitudes and contribute to a broader climate of social polarization.
This thesis analyzes the less explored (cognitive) causes and (social and political) consequences of affective polarization in Spain, focusing on the differential biases and dispositions that shape its origins and expressions. Special attention is given to the role of misperceptions about outgroups and the party system, to the social distancing between individuals with different partisan identities, and to the scope and influence of negative partisanship. Using data from the National Surveys on Political Polarization conducted by the Center of Public Opinion Studies of the University of Murcia (CEMOP), the analysis demonstrates that the more distorted an individual’s perception of a party’s ideological position, the greater the rejection of that party. It also shows that perceived system-level polarization fuels individual-level affective polarization, and that the gap between actual and perceived polarization (what is referred to as false polarization) significantly impacts individuals’ affective divergence. The intensification of intergroup differences, based on inaccurate inferences and stereotypes, offers a new perspective on theories that attribute interparty hostility to ideological divergence. Much of the perceived contrast is misprojected and inflated by group-based cognitive biases that seek to reinforce categorical distinctions in order to maintain a positive ingroup image and simplify social interpretation. The thesis then presents novel data on the non-political effects of affective polarization in Spain, particularly how it can foster homogamy and contribute to social segregation. In line with the theoretical framework developed earlier, the analysis emphasizes interpersonal processes as the distinctive core of this specific type of political polarization. Drawing on a question about the (dis)comfort respondents would feel in forming a romantic relationship with someone depending on that person’s partisan identity, the study contrasts the influence of ingroup favoritism and outgroup rejection as separate foundations of discriminatory behavior. It also reveals how partisan bloc dynamics extend into everyday life. The findings show that expressions of social distancing are especially pronounced when it comes to forming relationships with radical right voters (Vox), who elicit stronger negative reactions—particularly among women. The likely attribution of personality traits based on a person’s partisan identity, along with the prejudice of perceived incompatibility, highlights the expressive function of partisan identity in Spain. It illustrates the expansion of political conflict into increasingly personal domains and challenges traditional assumptions about the declining relevance of partisanship. However, since the origin of discriminatory behavior appears to lie more in ingroup attachment and the unequal distribution of affect than in isolated outgroup rejection, the findings prompt a psychological reflection on the motives behind individuals’ tendency to seek homophilic environments. Finally, the thesis addresses the concept of negative partisanship, an identification based on strong rejection of a particular political group, and assesses the extent to which it can be considered an underexplored voting rationale in the Spanish context. By showing that negative partisanship can translate into electoral returns, as evidenced by the rejection of Vox and the resulting vote for the PSOE in Spain’s July 2023 general elections, this thesis highlights the strategic incentive for political elites to adopt communication strategies aimed at increasing outgroup rejection, so that such sentiments become mechanisms for voter loyalty or mobilization. Along the way, these negative campaigns, designed to maximize intergroup distance and demonize op-ponents, also affect citizens’ attitudes and contribute to a broader climate of social polarization.
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