The Post-Stagnation Stage for Mature Tourism Areas: a Mathematical Modelling Process

Abstract

The Tourism Area Life Cycle (TALC) model by Butler (1980) explains the temporal evolution of a tourism resort. Lundtorp and Wanhill (2001) find that the logistic growth model represents the first phases of the TALC model. However, since the logistic model assumes a fixed tourism market ceiling, it fails to explain the post-stagnation stage, where rejuvenation, decline or any other intermediate possibility may arise. Taking into account the data of passenger flows to Bornholm from 1912 to 2001 collected by Lundtorp and Wanhill, we find that the superposition of several logistic growth models fits better with these data.Then, we propose a multi-logistic growth model, where the investment or innovation in the tourism sector boosts the addition of new logistic curves which superpose the old ones. The continuous birth and superposition of these new life cycles is not free, it requires purposive effort of entrepreneurs and governments seeking new markets and the improvement of infrastructures