Agua y agricultura en sistemas áridos: un modelo dinámico del regadío de Mazarrón y Águilas

Abstract

The intensive use of groundwater resources in the new irrigated lands of Mazarron-Aguilas has led to the over-exploitation of the local aquifers and thus, to seawater intrusion, water salinization and falling off water tables, all of them key processes of desertification. The simulation results show that the unrealistic perceptions about the relationships between irrigated land and water resources constitutes a key factor to explain the highly unsustainable dynamics of irrigated lands in Mazarrón and Aguilas and the whole SE Spain. The increase in water resources does not eliminate the problem because the feedback loops and endogenous factors of the system lead to a further increase in irrigated land and continuation of the water deficit, which shows a highly counter-intuitive behaviour.