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https://doi.org/10.1016/j.idm.2020.08.010
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Título: | The Covid-19 outbreak in Spain : A simple dynamics model, some lessons, and a theoretical framework for control response |
Fecha de publicación: | 2020 |
Fecha de defensa / creación: | 2020 |
Editorial: | KeAi Publishing |
Cita bibliográfica: | Infectious Disease Modelling, Volume 5, 2020, Pages 652-669 |
ISSN: | 2468-0427 |
Materias relacionadas: | CDU::5 - Ciencias puras y naturales::53 - Física CDU::6 - Ciencias aplicadas::61 - Medicina::614 - Higiene y salud pública. Contaminación. Prevención de accidentes. Enfermería CDU::5 - Ciencias puras y naturales::51 - Matemáticas |
Palabras clave: | Epidemics Covid-19 SARS-CoV-2 Control Prevention Model |
Resumen: | Spain is among the countries worst hit by the Covid-19 pandemic, with one of the highest rate of infections and deaths per million inhabitants. First positive was reported on late January 2020. Mid March, with 7,000 confirmed cases, nationwide lockdown was imposed. Mid May the epidemic was stabilized and government eased measures. Here we model the dynamics of the epidemic in Spain over the whole span, and study the effectiveness of control measures. The model is also applied to Italy and Germany. We propose formulas to easily estimate the size of the outbreak and the benefit of early intervention. A susceptible-infectious-recovered (SIR) model was used to simulate the epidemic. The growth and transmission rates, doubling time, and reproductive number were estimated by least-mean-square fitting of daily cases. Time-series data were obtained from official government reports. We forecasted the epidemic curve after lockdown under different effectiveness scenarios, and nowcasted the trend by moving average sliding window. Exponential growth expressions were derived. Outbreak progression remained under the early growth dynamics. The basic reproductive number in Spain was 2.5 ± 0.1 (95% CI 2.3–2.7), and the doubling time was 2.8 ± 0.1 days (95% CI 2.6–3.0). Slight variations in measures effectiveness produce a large divergence in the epidemic size. The effectiveness in Spain was 68%, above control threshold (60%). During lockdown the reproductive number dropped to an average of 0.81 ± 0.02 (95% CI 0.77–0.85). Estimated epidemic size is about 300,000 cases. A 7-days advance of measures yields a reduction to 38%. The dynamics in Spain is similar to other countries. Strong lockdown measures must be adopted if not compensated by rapid detection and isolation of patients, and even a slight relaxation would raise the reproductive number above 1. Simple calculations allow anticipating the size of the epidemic based on when measures are taken and their effectiveness. Spain acted late. Control measures must be implemented immediately in the face on an epidemic. |
Autor/es principal/es: | Guirao Piñera, Antonio |
Facultad/Departamentos/Servicios: | Facultades, Departamentos, Servicios y Escuelas::Departamentos de la UMU::Física |
Versión del editor: | https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2468042720300403 |
URI: | http://hdl.handle.net/10201/138272 |
DOI: | https://doi.org/10.1016/j.idm.2020.08.010 |
Tipo de documento: | info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
Número páginas / Extensión: | 18 |
Derechos: | info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 Internacional |
Descripción: | ©<2020>. This manuscript version is made available under the CC-BY-NC-ND license http://creativecommons.org/licenses/ccbyncdd/4.0/ This document is the Published, version of a Published Work that appeared in final form in [Infectious Disease Modelling]. To access the final edited and published work see [https://doi.org/10.1016/j.idm.2020.08.010] |
Matería temporal: | 2020-2023 |
Aparece en las colecciones: | Artículos: Física |
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Guirao-Infectious Disease Modelling 2020.pdf | 2,73 MB | Adobe PDF | ![]() Visualizar/Abrir |
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