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Gil Guirado, Salvador

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Gil Guirado, Salvador
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Universidad de Murcia. Departamento de Geografía
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    Assessing the effects of compound events of temperature and air pollution on weekly mortality in Spain using random forests
    (Elsevier, 2025-10-18) Garnés-Morales, Ginés; Tortosa, Javier; Jiménez Guerrero, Pedro; Gil Guirado, Salvador; García Fernández, Esther; Montávez, Juan Pedro; Física
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    Meteorological drivers of compound atmospheric events associated with summertime mortality excess in Spain
    (Elsevier, 2026-03-13) Garnés-Morales, Ginés; Jiménez Guerrero, Pedro; Gil Guirado, Salvador; Raluy-López, Eloisa; Segado-Moreno, Leandro; García Fernández, Ester; Montávez, Juan Pedro; Física
    Compound climate events involving concurrent heatwaves and air pollution episodes represent a growing threat to public health. This study identifies the large-scale synoptic patterns most frequently associated with such events and their impact on summertime excess mortality in mainland Spain from 2015 to 2022. Using a combination of principal component analysis and cluster techniques applied to ERA5 reanalysis data, we classify 12 circulation types (CTs). Two of them, associated with Iberian thermal lows and upper-level ridges (CT1 and CT4), are linked to simultaneous anomalies in maximum temperature (+4–6 ◦C), ozone (+10–25 μg m−3) and PM10 (+10–40 μg m−3), together accounting for 25% of summer days. To assess the impacts on mortality, the index M5d is proposed, representing the 5-day forward sum of all-cause deaths. CT1 and CT4 are associated with standardised M5d anomalies exceeding 1.5-2.0 standard deviations in several provinces, indicating a strong health response. Subtypes with Omega block configurations (e.g., CT1.3, CT4.4) show the highest efficiencies, with 70%–80% of days exceeding extreme thresholds for multiple variables and up to 50% efficiency in triggering excess mortality. These findings strengthen the scientific understanding of compound weather-health interactions in Southern Europe.
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