Browsing by browse.metadata.contributordepartment "Métodos Cuantitativos para la Economía y la Empresa"
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- PublicationOpen AccessA double life cycle in tourism arrivals to Spain: unit root tests with gradual change analysis.(Elsevier, 2020) Albaladejo, Isabel, P.; González Martínez, María Isabel; Martínez-García, María Pilar; Métodos Cuantitativos para la Economía y la EmpresaThe Tourist Area Life Cycle (TALC) theory by Butler (1980) proposes an S-shaped growth trend for the evolution of the number of tourists to a specific tourist destination. According to the data on tourist arrivals to Spain from 1946 to 2015, there may have one or two life cycles (TALCs). We propose to test these hypotheses by unit root tests with gradual change. Our results confirm that a double S-shaped or bilogistic curve is the long run equilibrium, so validating the existence of two TALCs in the evolution of Spanish tourism. Both logistic curves overlap in the late of the 70`s and early 80`s. The first is characterized by the Spanish tourism boom in the 60's, while the second one experiences an intense growth during 1995-2007, a period of sustained economic growth in the world.
- PublicationOpen AccessA dynamic factor model to predict homicides with firearm in the United States(2023-06) Camacho, Maximo; Porfiri, Maurizio; Ramallo, Salvador; Ruiz, Manuel; Métodos Cuantitativos para la Economía y la EmpresaPurpose Research on temporal dynamics of crime in the United States is growing. Yet, mathematical tools to reliably predict homicides with firearm are still lacking, due to delays in the release of official data lagging up to almost two years. This study takes a critical step in this direction by establishing a reliable statistical tool to predict homicides with firearm at a monthly resolution, combining official data and easy-to-access explanatory variables. Method We propose a dynamic factor model to predict homicides with firearm from 1999 to 2020 using official monthly data released yearly by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, provisional quarterly data from the same agencies, media output from newspapers, and crowdsourced information from the Guns Violence Archive. Results Statistical findings demonstrate that the dynamic factor model outperforms state-of-the-art techniques (AI and classical autoregressive models). The dynamic factor model offers improved ability to backcast, nowcast, and forecast homicides with firearm, and can anticipate sudden changes in the time-series. Conclusions By decomposing the time-series of homicides with firearm on common and idiosyncratic components, the dynamic factor model successfully captures their complex time-evolution. This approach offers a vantage point to policymakers and practitioners, allowing for timely predictions, otherwise unfeasible.
- PublicationOpen AccessA general approach on privacy and its implications in the digital economy(Taylor & Francis, 2022-03-25) Sánchez Romero, Mariola; Métodos Cuantitativos para la Economía y la EmpresaThe information age set off a revolution for organizations and institutions without precedent. Big production of data is a major competitive advantage for companies. Therefore, there are great economic incentives to monetize such data. However, there is evidence that indicates clear vulnerability in terms of user privacy, thereby setting a new paradigm in the search for a balance between privacy and security. This article offers a brief history of privacy to this day, deepens the scope and importance of its standardization in the regulation and future of digital markets.
- PublicationRestrictedA New Approach to Dating the Reference Cycle(Taylor & Francis Group, 2020-07-01) Camacho, Maximo; Gadea, María Dolores; Gómez Loscos, Ana; Métodos Cuantitativos para la Economía y la EmpresaThis article proposes a new approach to the analysis of the reference cycle turning points, defined on thebasis of the specific turning points of a broad set of coincident economic indicators. Each individual pair ofspecific peaks and troughs from these indicators is viewed as a realization of a mixture of an unspecifiednumber of separate bivariate Gaussian distributions whose different means are the reference turningpoints. These dates break the sample into separate reference cycle phases, whose shifts are modeled by ahidden Markov chain. The transition probability matrix is constrained so that the specification is equivalentto a multiple change-point model. Bayesian estimation of finite Markov mixture modeling techniques issuggested to estimate the model. Several Monte Carlo experiments are used to show the accuracy of themodel to date reference cycles that suffer from short phases, uncertain turning points, small samples, andasymmetric cycles. In the empirical section, we show the high performance of our approach to identifyingthe US reference cycle, with little difference from the timing of the turning point dates established by theNBER. In a pseudo real-time analysis, we also show the good performance of this methodology in terms ofaccuracy and speed of detection of turning point dates.
- PublicationOpen AccessA new look to the tourism and economic growth nexus: a clustering and panel causality analysis(Wiley, 2023-09) Albaladejo Pina, Isabel Pilar; Brida, Juan Gabriel; González Martínez, María Isabel; Segarra Salgueiro, Verónica; Métodos Cuantitativos para la Economía y la EmpresaThis paper explores the dynamic relationship between tourism and economic growth using panel data for 144 countries over the period 1995–2019. The study was carried out in two steps. First, the set of countries was classified by considering simultaneously two criteria, tourism and the economic development of the countries over time. Two classifications of homogeneous countries with four clusters each are obtained using a non-parametric methodology and two tourism indicators. Second, the Granger causality was tested for each of the identified groups and the entire sample. The results determined that there were significant differences between clusters and that causality from tourism to economic growth could only be verified for the group of countries with low income and low tourism. This relationship was confirmed by estimating impulse response functions, which showed a positive response of economic growth to innovations in tourism. The tourism sector could, therefore, be a way out of poverty and generate development and prosperity in low-income countries that are in the early stages of tourism developmen.
- PublicationOpen AccessAn R&D-based endogenous growth model of international tourism(2015) Albaladejo Pina, Isabel; Martínez-García, María Pilar; Métodos Cuantitativos para la Economía y la Empresa
PublicationRestrictedAnálisis de los individuos vulnerables a la exclusión social en España en 2009(2013) Lafuente Lechuga, Matilde; Faura Martínez, Úrsula; Métodos Cuantitativos para la Economía y la Empresa- PublicationOpen AccessBuilding a dynamic indicator on inclusive education in higher education(Taylor and Francis Group, Routledge , 2021-05-24) Faura Martínez, Úrsula; Cifuentes Faura, Javier; Métodos Cuantitativos para la Economía y la Empresa; Facultad de Economía y EmpresaThe goal of inclusive education is to address students’ special educational needs so that they are able to fully participate in the education community. The universities have been increasingly attempting to cater for the diversity of students by undertaking innovative projects through the adaptation of new technologies, which is key to their development. However, the evolution of inclusive education is uneven and largely depends on each university, as the resources, methods, and practices vary across institutions. The purpose of this paper is to propose an indicator to evaluate the state of inclusive education at each university. This indicator could ascertain the extent of curriculum adaptation and the degree of accessibility at universities, as well as the resources and projects they are developing to achieve inclusion. It will allow for a ranking of institutions according to the progress made in the field of inclusive education and, more specifically, for comparisons across universities regarding the quality of the specific measures taken to help students with special educational needs. This inclusive education indicator is a dynamic tool that may be updated immediately and provides the university community with the means to guide students with specific needs and their families in pre-university and university stages, among others.
- PublicationOpen AccessBusiness model experimentation in SMEs: the application of a dual scaling technique(2021-09-11) Molina Castillo, Francisco José; De Reuver, Mark; Bouwman, Harry; Jose G. Clavel; Métodos Cuantitativos para la Economía y la EmpresaBusiness model experimentation is an essential step for developing new business models. While the benefits of business model experimentation are increasingly studied, it is still poorly understood why companies engage in business model experimentation. This paper examines, starting from environmental turbulence reasoning, which external and internal drivers serve as antecedents for business model experimentation by firms that already have established business models. We do so by making use of a unique, quantitative data set based on a survey study among 929 European SMEs actively engaged in business model innovation. Using Dual Scaling, a procedure to scale categorical inputs that yields the least-squares lower-rank approximation to the elements of our data set, we find that external drivers relating to technological turbulence are the most important antecedents for business model experimentation. External competitive intensity doesn’t motivate business model experimentation. Regarding internal drivers, strategic change, related to product innovation, is a significant antecedent, while innovative activities are less outspoken. By examining why companies engage in business model experimentation, the paper contributes to understanding the antecedents of business model innovation.
- PublicationOpen AccessCollusion and Customization(World Scientific Publishing, 2020-06-24) Martínez Sánchez, Francisco; Métodos Cuantitativos para la Economía y la EmpresaWe analyze the effect of customizing a product on the ability of firms to tacitly collude on prices. Following [Bar-Isaac et al. [2014] Targeted product design: Locating inside the Salop circle, Mimeo], we allow firms to be located inside the circle in the Salop model [Salop, S. [1979] Monopolistic competition with outside goods, Bell J. Econ., 10(1), 141–156]. Our analysis shows that the effect of product customization on the stability of collusion depends on the sensitivity of consumers’ utility to the degree of customization. In particular, if that sensitivity is low enough, then greater customization facilitates collusion. Otherwise, greater customization hinders collusion if consumers value the product little.
- PublicationOpen AccessCongestion affecting the dynamic of tourism demand: evidence from the most popular destinations in Spain(Taylor and Francis Group, 2019) Albaladejo Pina, Isabel Pilar; González Martínez, María Isabel; Métodos Cuantitativos para la Economía y la EmpresaIn this study, we propose a dynamic econometric model for tourism demand which takes into account the implications of the Tourism Area Life Cycle (TALC) theory on tourism demand. Unlike other dynamic models, in our specification the effect of the lagged demand on the current tourism demand is not constant, but dependent on congestion. We estimate the model using disaggregated data from the most visited Spanish municipalities for the period 2006–2015. Two panel data estimations are carried out: one with the coastal tourist resorts and the other one with the inland municipalities. The results show that tourism congestion reduces the positive previous tourist effect on current arrivals, suggesting that increasing congestion could worsen the attraction of a tourist destination. Congestion is more negatively perceived in inland destinations than coastal ones. Finally, a strong persistence in tourism demand for coastal destinations is shown.
- PublicationOpen AccessConnected Audiences in Digital Media Markets: The Dynamics of University Online Video Impact(Elsevier, 2022) López Buenache, Germán; Meseguer Martínez, Ángel; Ros Gálvez, Alejandro; Rosa García, Alfonso; Métodos Cuantitativos para la Economía y la EmpresaThis paper analyses whether the audience dynamics of one content provider can explain the audience dynamics of a different content provider, and the resulting network of connections among providers. The type of connections in this network determines whether the audience of one creator influences or is susceptible to other creators’ audience. Granger causality networks are applied to prestigious universities that provide online videos on YouTube and the structure of the Audience Dynamics Network is described. This network presents an unbalanced degree distribution and a core-periphery structure. The centrality of the universities in the network is discussed and universities with influential and susceptible roles are identified. We find that audience connection is determined by the differences in the online video impact between each pair of universities. Centrality in the network is associated with university prestige, but this relation is mediated by online video impact.
- PublicationOpen AccessCorruption, quality of institutions and growth(Emerald, 2023) Arielle Beyaert; García Solanes, José; López Gómez, Laura; Métodos Cuantitativos para la Economía y la Empresa; Fundamentos del Análisis EconómicoPurpose This paper aims to apply regression-tree analysis to capture the nonlinear effects of corruption on economic growth. Using data of 103 countries for the period 1996–2017, the authors endogenously detect two distinct areas in corruption quality in which the members share the same model of economic growth. Design/methodology/approach The authors apply regression tree analysis to capture the nonlinearity of the influences. This methodology allows us to split endogenously the whole sample of countries and characterize the different ways through which corruption impacts economic growth in each group of countries. Findings The traditional determinants of economic growth have different impacts on countries depending on their level of corruption, which, in turn, confirms the parameter heterogeneity of the Solow model found in other strands of the literature. Originality/value The authors apply a new approach to a worldwide sample obtaining novel results.
- PublicationOpen AccessDesigualdad de género y convergencia en los países de la UE-28 (2005-2015)(Universidad de Huelva, 2019-12-10) González Martínez, María Isabel; López Martínez, María; Martínez Hermosilla, Ginés; Métodos Cuantitativos para la Economía y la EmpresaLa igualdad de género beneficia a toda la sociedad. En este trabajo se compara la situación de los países de la Unión Europea en términos de igualdad de género, y se analiza si los países con mayores desigualdades (los orientales) han logrado reducir la brecha con los más avanzados (los nórdicos) en el periodo 2005-2015. Para ello, examinamos σ-convergencia y β-convergencia utilizando datos de panel del Índice de Igualdad de Género para los 28 países de la Unión. Los resultados muestran cierto acercamiento en términos de igualdad de género. Esta convergencia se ve condicionada por las diferencias educativas entre los países. --------------------
- PublicationOpen AccessDevelopment and software piracy(Sciendo, 2018-02-23) Martínez Sánchez, Francisco; Romeu, Andrés; Métodos Cuantitativos para la Economía y la EmpresaIn this paper, the authors analyze the differences in piracy rates from one country to another. Like previous papers on the topic, they find that more developed countries have lower incentives for pirating. Unlike previous papers, they find that the piracy rate is positively correlated with the tax burden rate but negatively correlated with the domestic market size and exports over GDP. The authors also separate the impacts of education and R&D on piracy, and find two effects with opposite signs. Moreover, they find that those countries with smaller, more efficient bureaucracies are likely to protect intellectual property more effectively. Finally, they show that the spread of access to the Internet is negatively correlated with the software piracy rate.
- PublicationOpen AccessDid the Euro Really Increase Corruption in the Eurozone? A Counterfactual Analysis.(Instituto de Estudios fiscales, 2023) Arielle Beyaert; García Solanes, José; López Gómez, Laura; Fundamentos del Análisis Económico; Economía Aplicada; Métodos Cuantitativos para la Economía y la EmpresaIn this paper we apply the Synthetic Control Method developed by Abadie, Diamond and Hainmüeller (2010) to assess the extent to which the adoption of the euro has affected corruption in three groups of Eurozone countries: the core, southern and eastern countries. To do so, we construct counterfactuals for each group and for individual countries and compare them with the actual evolution of the corruption-control indicator. Except in the case of the Netherlands, where significant negative effects are detected, we find evidence that the adoption of the euro has either contributed to reducing corruption or has not affected it significantly.
- PublicationOpen AccessDo economic recessions cause inequality to rise?(Taylor & Francis Group, 2019) Camacho, Maximo; Palmieri, Gonzalo; Métodos Cuantitativos para la Economía y la EmpresaWe use a local projection approach to analyze the effect of economic recessions on income inequality in a comprehensive sample of 43 countries from 1960 to 2016. Although we consider both business-cycle and growth-cycle recessions, we fail to find evidence of significant positive impacts of economic downturns on income distribution, once controls are added to the model. However, we do find important differences across countries, which mainly depend on the degree of economic development.
- PublicationOpen AccessDocencia en estadística con Microsoft Excel: Inferencia Estadística(2014-10-09) Parra Frutos, Isabel; Molera Peris, Lourdes; Arnaldos García, Fuensanta; Díaz Delfa, María Teresa; Faura Martínez, Úrsula; Métodos Cuantitativos para la Economía y la Empresa; Facultad de Economía y EmpresaFichero .xls al que se hace referencia en el paper "Docencia en estadística con Microsoft Excel: Inferencia Estadística" de las mismas autoras, publicado en Rect@ y disponible en http://www.oalib.com/paper/2515611
- PublicationOpen AccessDocencia en estadística con Microsoft Excel: Probabilidad(2014-10-09) Díaz Delfa, María Teresa; Arnaldos García, Fuensanta; Faura Martínez, Úrsula; Molera Peris, Lourdes; Parra Frutos, Isabel; Métodos Cuantitativos para la Economía y la Empresa; Facultad de Economía y EmpresaFichero .xls al que se hace referencia en el paper "Docencia en estadística con Microsoft Excel: Probabilidad" de las mismas autoras, publicado en Rect@ 2004 y disponible en http://www.oalib.com/paper/2515173
- PublicationOpen AccessEconometría (3ºGADE)(2013-12-11) Álvarez, Susana; Beyaert, Arielle; Camacho Alonso, Máximo C.; González, María Isabel; Quesada, Alfonso; Métodos Cuantitativos para la Economía y la Empresa; Facultad de Economía y Empresa